Thank you pe981 for the very thoughtful post which makes some excellent points and provides another viewpoint. The directors in the roadshow pre EGM were, I thought, fairly adamant that production was a much more profitable option for FMS than the 2.5% royalty option. The MST seems to agree with this. My calculations were on the bases of the royalty option with anything above that being a bonus so to speak. The royalty option if taken, would give earlier returns. As you say, the BFS and FID should allow for more modelling and projections and a major rerate of the SP. Many shareholders believe that the BFS and FID will take much less than 4 years. I also think that will be the case too. Maybe 2 years at most is my guess but I have no way of knowing what will be the real time frame.
One thing I didn’t mention was Canegrass. That will have a value and is 100% owned by FMS. So the SP should reflect both projects. It is hard to see much progress on Canegrass unless some sort of farmin deal is entered into.
Now FMS has got their recommended Agreement past the line it will be interesting to see how positive announcements are in future. The quarterly is due at the end of this month and whilst the company would be expected to provide commentary about the Covid19 situation it should also contain positive comments on the commencement of the BFS etc. In my opinion we saw lots of positive spin in order to get the recent vote over the line so the company is capable of promoting the direction it wants. The company will need sufficient capital to get through to production and a strong SP and demand for shares will be essential IMO. Let’s see if that positive promotion is reflected in the quarterly and then other coming announcements.
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