Interesting next few weeks (and months). In the first instance,...

Interesting next few weeks (and months).

In the first instance, today's JOLT figures had apparently negated all of yesterday's negative data - BUT, S&P500 tipping back into the red.

While there will still be all sorts of commentary about next FOMC meeting being 'live', and the prospects of a hike being sooner than the market thinks, my belief is that there is absolutely no chance of a rate hike in September. This won't, however, stop the endless, empty bleating of the Federal Open Mouth Committee putting downward pressure on the POG.

We all know the drill. And I hope more of us are becoming less susceptible to falling for the old 'wash, rinse, repeat' cycle. Like a bad soap opera that ran out of ideas long ago and has been moved to a sister channel, it will go a little something like this:

- talk up recovery and chances of imminent rate hike
- pressure on POG pushes it towards $1,320 and perhaps back down to $1,306
- FOMC decides not to raise rates September (BUT point to December being [very] likely)
- POG initially pushes back above $1,350 - $1,360
- within a few days, various FOMC members start intimating that December is basically a done deal
- at the same time, massive amounts of gold are dumped onto the COMEX, while shorts hit another historical high
- POG gaps down $15 - $20 in one hit, then starts to grind down
- then first Friday in October, September jobs come in at >200,000
- more jawboning about rate rise being 'imminent'/ full employment nearly reached (all those extra 'sandwich artists' at Subway)
- Goldman Sachs release puff piece that says chance of December rate hike 70%+
- myriad stories about gold having had its run and the shine coming off the PM investment class
- S&P hits another record high - impervious to any bad data dumps (bad news becomes 'good news' and good news remains good news)
- Scott and Charlene get married, even though Scott found out that Charlene wasn't a virgin at the motel that time they were just about to do it
- Lassiters Bar still unluckiest/ most maligned piece of real estate in Australia (earthquakes/ explosions/ scandals/ owned by Paul Robinson)
- Julian Assange makes cameo appearance, brings news that causes Mrs Clinton to leave Ramsay Street forever (not even TV Week saw that coming)
- market begins to crash in mid-October
- central bankers everywhere say they will do whatever it takes (even bringing Harold back to boost ratings)
- subsequent bear market rally proves to be merely stay of execution
- fully fledged melt-down into US election
- despite attempted election rigging, Alf becomes new mayor of Summer Bay (calls Yellen a flamin' drongo)
- POG hits $1,500 ($2,000AUD)
- EVN hits $4
- roll credits