The only reasons I can adduce, not great ones, are that grumpy 'Mr Market' believes the SP has run up too much, or alternatively, that Western European nations are so weak politically and militarily that they will bow down to Mr Putin's altar in Russia and do everything possible to facilitate grain exports from Russia (and in time a Russian-contolled Ukraine).
Hence if the latter occurred, the 'food shortage' would become mythical in MM's eyes and any price premiums paid for Oz wheat would disappear. That alone wouldn't affect GNC as it's a handler, not a grower, but it might in 'grumpy's' view see fewer hectares devoted to wheat/canola/barley/oats crops in time, and this would adversely affect GNC.
Perhaps also 'MM' may be suggesting that a recession would decrease demand for wheat as consumers cut back on luxury purchases like cakes or meat consumption such as pork that's fed on grains, but that argument seems weak as a lot of wheat is used for basic items such as bread, and with worldwide populations rising (albeit not quite as fast given COVID-19), we all still must eat.
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