You could have also added the data from FastMarkets.
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/china-to-impose-export-controls-on-graphite-related-items/the announcement provides a list of nine controlled items (three synthetic graphite-related items and six natural graphite-related items), subject to a dual-use item export license requirements.
The list includes natural flake graphite (HS Code 25041010), spherical graphite (HS Code 25041091) and expandable graphite (HS Code 3824999940) and other synthetic graphite-related materials.
To apply for the license, the exporter must fill in and submit an application form to the provincial commercial departments along with documents including the original copy of the contracts, documents for the exported products, the end-user certificate, information of the importer and identity documents of the exporters’ legal representatives.
China exported a total of 57,737 tonnes of natural flake graphite (HS Code 25041010) in January-September, down by 23.16% from a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data.Furthermore, reliance on China’s synthetic graphite has also been on the rise in the past couple of years, according to sources.
Chinese customs data shows that total exports of synthetic graphite (HS code 38011000) has been increasing since 2020 – the country exporter 293,000 tonnes in 2020, 399,000 tonnes in 2021, 411,919 tonnes in 2022 and 424,705 tonnes in the first nine months of this year.
In basic terms, China exports significantly more synthetic graphite at 411k tonnes (9 months) vers 57k tonnes of flake graphite, we already know that SYR is operating at 30% capacity (approximately 200k tpa of free capacity), and we have Jinpengs latest production facility that was built in a neighbouring country, the molo graphite project 17ktpa and 1-2 other Tanzania graphite projects that are currently in construction. plus we have the other existing operating graphite projects outside of China.
The tiny shortfall if China were to impose a complete ban of flake graphite exports of 57-76ktpa, SYR has this covered with its 200k tpa of spare capacity.
(20min delay)