DEL

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5.0¢ delorean corporation limited

Took a starter position today. Looks like a great mid/long term...

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pist87

1,026 Posts.

26/07/21

12:44

Post #: 54774042

Originally posted by emptytrolly: ↑
So here is my attempt at calculating future income. There are some significantly different outcomes from the analysis provided by dabozza as I believe he may have made some errors in his calculations such as not enough income from EPC of the NZ plant in 2020 and not including DEQO at all.
With this the projected issues with 2022 go away and P/E from 24/25 onward is significantly improved.

Assumptions:
- I used the same 60% EBITDA to NPAT margin as dabozza.
- I used the same 58% EBITDA margins on waste offtake and power supply. As I said in my other replies there is reason for this to be higher at the DESAO plant, and others, but it seems a good conservative number to stick to and helps compare the differences in our analysis.
- My timeline for DEVT and DEQO is more aggressive than dabozza but with DEQO FID ready later this year as seen in "Delorean Presentation - 2021 NWR Virtual Investor Conference" I decided to go with the more aggressive timeline.
- The Biogass O & M (operation and maintenance) figures are a complete guess. They may be more in which case great! but if less its probably not going to be too much less. $200k seemed like a pretty conservative guess. I didn't include any consultancy fees because the NWR video shows they are still working on a pipeline of 4 more self owned projects which is likely to be keeping them busy.
- I used 10% estimated growth for CleanTech Energy vs the 5% used by dabozza. I believe this is still conservative given the rate of growth over the past 4 years has been closer to 50% and entry to the NEM provides a great opportunity to grow further.
- I used the EPC figures from Blue Lake for Pioneer Energy as I didn't have much to go on but since Blue Lake is the smallest plant they have built these number are a good conservative estimate. They will likely be slightly higher.
- I couldn't find ownership percentage for DEVT however the plant is larger than DEVO so I just used the same number as DEVO for this plant. Seemed conservative enough.
- DEQO is shown as 100% self owned in the NWR video and is twice the size of DEVO. Gate fees are going to be different because its in QLD not VIC but since DEVO is only 90% self owned doubling the DEVO numbers seemed conservative enough.

Estimated Growth FY21f 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
1 Delorean Energy 3.00%

2 - DEVO

1.72 1.77 1.82 1.88 1.94 1.99
3 - DESAO

2.56 2.64 2.72 2.80 2.88 2.97
4 - DEVT

1.72 1.77 1.82 1.88 1.94
5 - DEQO

3.44 3.54 3.65 3.76 3.87
6 CleanTech Energy 10.00% 1.70 1.87 2.06 2.26 2.49 2.74 3.01 3.31
7 Biogass

8 - Blue Lake (SA)

9 - EPC
1.58

10 - O & M

0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20
11 - Pioneer Energy (NZ)

12 - EPC

1.20 1.58

13 - O & M

0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20
14 TekPro

15 EBITDA
3.10 3.27 8.12 12.23 12.74 13.29 13.87 14.48
16 NPAT
1.90 1.96 4.87 7.34 7.65 7.97 8.32 8.69
17 P / E (@ 22c)
24.55 23.77 9.58 6.36 6.10 5.85 5.61 5.37
Expand
Took a starter position today. Looks like a great mid/long term prospect.

Out of interest, how did you derive the $1.58m income the EPC contract for Blue Lake, and then the $1.2m and $1.58m income for Pioneer? What isn't clear to me is how the Company account for these contracts on the P&L ($7.6m for Blue Lakes and $10.4m for Pioneer)? Are these paid upfront, in instalments, or at the conclusion of the contract?

DEL Price at posting: 21.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Took a starter position today. Looks like a great mid/long term...

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		Estimated Growth	FY21f	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
1	Delorean Energy	3.00%
2	- DEVO				1.72	1.77	1.82	1.88	1.94	1.99
3	- DESAO				2.56	2.64	2.72	2.80	2.88	2.97
4	- DEVT					1.72	1.77	1.82	1.88	1.94
5	- DEQO					3.44	3.54	3.65	3.76	3.87
6	CleanTech Energy	10.00%	1.70	1.87	2.06	2.26	2.49	2.74	3.01	3.31
7	Biogass
8	- Blue Lake (SA)
9	- EPC		1.58
10	- O & M			0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20
11	- Pioneer Energy (NZ)
12	- EPC			1.20	1.58
13	- O & M					0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20
14	TekPro
15	EBITDA		3.10	3.27	8.12	12.23	12.74	13.29	13.87	14.48
16	NPAT		1.90	1.96	4.87	7.34	7.65	7.97	8.32	8.69
17	P / E (@ 22c)		24.55	23.77	9.58	6.36	6.10	5.85	5.61	5.37

Took a starter position today. Looks like a great mid/long term...

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