Ann: DFS Confirms NAL Value With A$2.2B NPV, page-344

Thanks @Lootscroll99, appreciate the civil discussion, good on you. Remember the DFS is projecting cashflows across a 20 year LOM. So in the long run, it makes money. The problem is the short run - while that PLL offtake is in force. According to this DFS Sayona believe they'll be able to split shipments 50/50 and so earn good margins on their 50%. I have not seen anywhere where PLL has formally agreed to this (perhaps I have missed it). The offtake is either 113k tpa or 50%, whichever the greater. As others have pointed out PLL have all sorts of issues of their own so in my view I think they are going to want as much product as cheaply as possible to support their own lofty valuation. I therefore think the 50/50 split is Sayona's hope/assumption. If it does not play out like this, then the numbers are going to look ugly for Sayona for as long as it takes them to get to nameplate. So why would I note believe Sayona? Well, quite simply, because they have now presented a PFS and a DFS where in both cases they automatically assume that by 2027 the offtake will no longer be in force. Yes, the DFS admits that this is "subject to joint venture approval" but this is still a huge assumption - and they've built their whole DFS around it! This post from a PLL holder goes into the matter with screenshots etc, and I think they're on point: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/67289410/single

For clarity, I'm not suggesting SYA is a zero. I just think the valuation has run ahead of itself and the deposit is more challenging than many bulls know or care to admit, but this will probably not be apparent until the quarterlies when actual cashflows can be extrapolated. The DFS maps out some cashflows but does so on a big underlying assumption. If: 1) the deal is 50/50 from first ore produced 2) it stays in force only four years and 3) the lithium price does not fall further, then per your numbers I think they'll be alright - but how sure are you of those variables? Cheers