Ok, here is my perspective, and I am happy to be corrected in any or my assumptions here.
The first set of slides is about "consistency", which is re-iterated at the end of the presentation.
Looking at the dividends paid out over the last few years, we can see that the final dividend will need to come in over the $0.10c mark for the company to remain consistent. A big call, but think it is a realistic possibility, given the strong signalling in the presentation.
Next on Duketon, represents a big opportunity with grade and life of mine increases, as well as a significant amount of investment in expansion and exploration in the region.
Tropicana. Despite what people are saying, I think this is going to be a masterstroke from the company. Proven, low cost, low risk and excellent upside potential. From next year on, we should see significant returns and a lot of upside in the share price.
McPs no doubt has challenges, but the whole world has challenges at the moment. Costs are likely to be higher with an increase in AISC, but with approvals, permitting, finance and development, first gold won't be for a few years anyways, but the first tick is looking promising with potential for approvals for this calendar year (2021), along with very supporting ministers and Department of Planning Infrastructure and Environment. Which they should have given the state of the NSW economy. I personally think approvals, given the latest round of extended lockdowns, will be early next year, but in saying this, the construction industry is still working, and there is nothing to prevent this work continuing in the background, so who knows.
Price of gold is obviously central to all of this, it got smashed down last week in a coordinated attack on the share price, and if you want to understand a bit more about who / how / why, I suggest you check out the gold threads from the last week or so and here is a link from the 9th August before the flash crash in the price of gold - https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/gold.2750023/page-1654?direction=previous
Warning, there is a lot of crap posted,and you won't be judged for being selective in the posts you choose to read.
I, and many others, think gold is headed back about $2,000 USD / oz towards the end of the year. After hitting a low of around $1,666 USD on Monday morning, the POG rebounded over the course of the week and closed at and, more importantly, reopened at $1,780 USD currently, or $2,413 AUD.
Hedges are what they are, and the company is doing it's best to manage and mitigate the impact of them, but as these wind down, the benefits will flow through to shareholders, which is literally tens of millions more dollars to be re-invested or distributed.
In summary, I am thinking a large dividend in the immediate term, and 5 major catalysts to positively and significantly effect the share price over the next 3 years.
My SP hopes / dreams / estimates:
31 Dec 2021 - $3.20
31 Dec 2022 - $7.5 (with the benefits of Duketon expansion and exploration, Tropicana humming along with low AISC and POG up around $2,000 USD /oz)
31 Dec 2023 - $10 (with McPs development well under way, hedges pretty much at zero and POG up around $2,200 USD / oz)
Again, your thoughts, comments and corrections welcomed.
(20min delay)