What do you think about the addressable margin part of the presentation ?? Ken hints which would be the SC6 price shall Carbonate hits previous highs of 24k$/ton...
His base is that it seems that the winner on the BMX is just not making any money, as has transfered all his conversion margin to the miner (PLS), theorethically to stay afloat... In 2017 the margin after conversion was around 19,000$, part went to SC producer (5,000$/LCE ton equiv.) and the remaining 14,000$ into the converter pokets (5,000$/LCE conv costs)
In a deficit market, the converters will transfer most of their margin to comply with their commitments; That would mean that if the whole 19,000$ go to SC producer, it would mean 19/7 ( 2,700 $/SC6 ton DDP) or if half the margin ( 9,500/7= 1,300$ /SC6 ton).
Rough numbers (on the phone) just to initiate thought about where we are , and where we could be in the future. Also good to bypass converter JV in the assumptions.
I've got 3-3.4$/sh as a fair value ; just playing with my models to put perspective on the current rally, and the urge to take profits (avg 36c).
Constructive comments most than welcomed !!
Have a great weekend. Stay safe.
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Ann: Diggers & Dealers Conference 2021 Presentation, page-41
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