Think it about it from a magnitude of appreciation, if NEU went from 220M to 1.1B, thats 5x (Know its worth more now but just for comparison). We can get to a fairly measly 120M and deliver the same value to shareholders from this current point. They are worth 1.6B now, so from commencement of P3 lets round off to 8x. That would get us to 240M-ish MC from this point.
My money is where my mouth is to think we would be past 240M after results. But, I agree to your point its a gamble. Most (all?) biotech's are.
I don't know if a partner is going to jump in until at least after first read outs from P3, but I wouldn't be expected until after eGFR slope review. There is no certainty that reducing uPCR is going to actually correlate to increased eGFR for this particular drug. There are studies that show they are correlated, but no absolute certainty or strong correlation. Hence I expect this why it is needed for approval.
My feeling is this is truly rock bottom, but see how we go. Good luck to everyone here and the patients.
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