Ann: Director Appointment, page-15

Good one R21, nice analogy, it does seem a bit like that.

Punters are going to start talking about price and fair value soon, so I might as well get in now.

Firstly, let me say that it could be any price, because everyone knows the market is corrupt, so no-one should be surprised by what happens in the end.

Anyway, here goes.

After one year of producing circa 250k ozpa, at the low AISC on the DFS, you would think TIE should have a market cap of around $1.2 billion (depending somewhat on the gold price - I'm going to estimate US$1,700 - $1,750). There will be a discount for sovereign risk (its Africa). That gives a share price of roughly $1.20 (provided no more shares are issued - it's a very rough calculation, others will be more specific and correct I'm sure, as we go along). There is usually a reasonable premium for takeovers, I've seen them ranging from as low as 25% up to as high as 70%. So let us take a low conservative figure of say 33%, because we don't want to get our hopes up too high, after all, we are dealing with the Chinese business class here. And I'm working out a minimum takeover price here only. So let's just add 40 cents. That gives me a minimum takeover price, after one year of "confirmed" 250k ozpa production of very roughly $1.60 AU. This should be a minimum takeover price based on a market cap of $1.2 billion and post one year's production.

As some have already said here, a price may have already been discussed, behind the scenes.

I'd personally not want to receive anything less than $1.50, but in the end, as usual, we peasants will have to settle for whatever scraps the powers-that-be decide to feed us.


Gw