I'm not as confident as you Jimmy_C .... Three guidance...

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16/12/19

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Post #: 41987032
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Originally posted by Jimmy_C: ↑

Yep. Three guidance downgrades in short succession was always going to be hazardous to somebody's career. I have some sympathy as the market clearly changed rapidly once the UK price caps came in on 1 Jan this year, but they should've seen it coming and budgeted project revenue (the lack thereof being the major cause of the debacle) more conservatively than they did.

Anyway, they have a nice little currency tailwind now with the appreciation of the GBP. If the UK can finally extract itself from the EU with the dust settles from this week's election, and some normality returns to the energy market next year as retailers slowly restore operating margins and get accustomed to life with capped tariffs, the delayed project work will eventually return and the recurring revenue base will keep ticking up. With some modest recurring revenue growth, a bit of lumpy project revenue, and as the subscription revenue model transition gets into its third and fourth years, GTK's EBITDA margin could quickly head up back toward the 30% range it was only 18 months ago, and (revenue growth + margin expansion) is a nice combination.

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I'm not as confident as you Jimmy_C .... Three guidance downgrades in short succession, and at the same time Headcount up by approx. 10% and personnel Costs up by 16% (57.4m to 66.5m) who allowed that to happen. Brexit does not guarantee GTK anything, and as stated on page 5 of their presentation to the market, "emerging competitors in the UK and Aus". The Annual Results Audio Briefing was a train wreck...

GTK Price at posting: $3.54 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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I'm not as confident as you Jimmy_C .... Three guidance...

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I'm not as confident as you Jimmy_C .... Three guidance...

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