KSD, you need to calm down dude.
3 weeks ago you were talking about $3, now you think it's going to be 30c this week and below 60c for years to come.
You say that someone obviously wants out..... The stock has been doing 100k per day recently, this regular daily liquidity and hardly the sign of a huge ongoing seller..... And your assertion that it is maybe the new major shareholder selling is laughable. Yeah right, Craig Burton and Rod Jones put $15mn into the business and then decided to start selling chunks of it on the screen the following week at the same price they paid for it. Unlike you sir, most smart investors have an investment horizon longer than a few days. Additionally, Mr Burton is a board member, so would be unable to sell his shares on the market anyway.
As for your comments on the 80c options - I don't understand why you care about these so much. If you want to buy more stock then just buy it here at 50c, why do you care if the 80c options expire in the money or not? If you like the company and think it is undervalued, then buy some shares at 50c. If the stock rallies hard in the next 6 months then exercise your options and buy more. If you don't want to buy any now that the stock is there at 50c (which is what I inferred from the tone of your post), then why would you want to pay 80c in 6 months? Why would you even care about the 80c options, because presumably you wouldn't exercise them anyway (since you don't think it's a buy at 50c, so why would it be a buy at 80c)?
On a separate note, everyone just needs to remember where the company is now. They are about to start shipping coal out of ACG's mines in Pennsylvania and will be receiving circa $9mn in cash flow this year from those sales. In all likelihood the company will ship far more than the MINIMUM of 250,000 tonnes, since it is in both company's interests to maximise the run-of-mine production and thereby spread the fixed costs of production over a larger amount of tonnes produced. If the company was able to sell 350,000 tonnes instead of 250,000 (which by all reports is still somewhat conservative), the average sale price was $170/t (again, somewhat conservative) and the average F.O.B cost was still $100 (similarly conservative, since the extra production would definitely bring the average cost per tonne down by at least $4-6), then Atrum's 60% share in profits works out to circa 15mn USD in profit (approximately $20mn AUD). Those are fairly conservative numbers, if not for 2017, then definitely for 2018 and onwards. My personal opinion is that Atrum will be generating upwards of $25mn AUD in profits from the JV every year from 2018 onwards (2017 may be somewhere between $10-20mn).
Think about what multiple those earnings are worth and that alone probably makes the stock a buy at 50c a share.... And that's before you even begin to value Groundhog (or for that matter Panorama, which has theoretically been independently valued by JOGMEC at $50mn). I am as frustrated about the progress (or lack thereof, that this business has made in recent years, but it would be foolish to throw in the towel now with the company so close to becoming a producer and yet with the stock priced for failure. In reality, it has never been a better buy than it is right now..... which is probably why one of the richest men in Australia just invested >$10mn.
ATU Price at posting:
49.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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