yes timing is a bitch - very hard to nail it. But it will not be...

yes timing is a bitch - very hard to nail it. But it will not be like in the past where large stimulus can be announced without significant move in price of gold. the insane debt in the system is making sure, any more printing to invite POG to move higher and higher.
And no matter what out central banks and Govs do from this point on there will be price to pay - aka debasement of currencies against gold.

Let's take Aus for example - Real Estate is one of the most expensive in the world. Even the biggest imbeciles know it is massive bubble. Yes, hard to time it when will blow up but right now these prices can't be supported by the local population any more as we reached the limit of our borrowing capacity. Rate cuts are not going to be easy to deliver with inflation being well above 4% (when food and fuel is included). And we killed most of our manufacturing so we can't control the supply side any longer. Other countries are price setters for us - we just pay what we are asked to pay.
If Real Estate starts to collapse here it will be the end of our economy as system - it will destroy the banks. Our banks are simply banks in name but in reality, they are glorified home-loan lenders as around 90% of their revenue comes from home loans.
In this scenario our Gov will have no choice but to intervene and whatever they chose, it will require massive printing. That means POG in AUD will hit at least $4k.
If such intervention is done while US also experiences turbulence and needs to also print another $3t at short notice then POG will get close to $3k in USD.


We brought this upon ourselves and we simply don't know how to deal with the problem. And the first thing our politicians will do is to print or print and cut rates if possible. Cutting rates will push the AUD down anyway.

I don't know the timing - But what I know for sure is holding the rates at these levels is not sustainable, and I also know cutting while inflation is too high will not be good at all.
If inflation falls below 3% then we can buy some time by making couple of rate cuts so few more fools will be able to borrow more and pay $1.5m to be 100m from the best drug shooting hot-spots in Sydney and Melbourne. That can buy another 3-4 years until we hit the limit of our borrowing capacity again.


Have you noticed how many mercs, audis and BMWs (and ALK shares lol... pun) are up for sale on every bit of parkland next to any busy road? The early signs of overleveraged speculators who lived beyond their means.

Another sign is POG holding for so long above $2k USD despite some very serious paper selling pressure being applied over the last 3 weeks.