BOT 5.48% 34.5¢ botanix pharmaceuticals ltd

Ann: Director Temporary Leave of Absence, page-33

  1. 882 Posts.
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    All the following are approximations...

    So if 5m shares are traded today that will be a total of 95m traded in the 20s since the CR shares were released on the 7th August equating to about 1/10th of the share float.

    As we know the raise was 190m shares at 21c, 2/10th of the float. I assume a percentage of those were traded for a small gain.

    Further, assessing the top20 there hasn't been a lot of change apart from Maven unwinding a 17.6m position. A few others have slightly increased their position. Top2 holders account for 140m shares or 10.4% of the float. T20 overall hold a decent portion.

    Since the 20/06/19, 492m shares have been traded (if you add today's traded shares close to 500m) with about 80% traded in the 20c range all the way up to 29c and the other 20% in the range of 16c-19.5c. I think that's a bloody good base prior to the upcoming Acne Phase 2 results which are not far off, also taking into consideration the 190m shares raised at 21c, and half the float traded at reasonable levels.

    Now regarding the raise. This stock is highly illiquid without news. So even though it was at a discount (people forget it was also after a huge run) the investors would know that the company was raising a huge amount of money and shares would be hard to unwind. Therefore, I think a lot of the CR shares would be tightly held because they would know it would be hard to unwind their position, perhaps having a more medium to long term view. Due to amount of money and shares raised the discussions must have been bullish on the data and future on BOT, the investors see value at 21c, refer back to them not being able to unload all their shares due to illiquidity without news. BOT is definitely liquid on news and will be doing huge volume very soon.

    Furthermore, I am naive to think BOT would be hiring some top Americano talent within the industry because the forthcoming results are good? I must be naive, and I don't care!!! I know the BTX 1503 Acne Phase 1 data set is small but in that same time it outperformed competitors drugs which would have completed similar sized trials. As I've mentioned a few times the safety profile being much better, and it's great having the licensing on Permetrex technology.

    Personally I'm starting to get more bullish as we get closer to September. Next week is the last trading week in August, the following week will be starting on Monday the 2nd September and that little bit closer to results if they haven't come out yet. Should see some upwards traction in the share price soon, there's been a fair amount of churn going on since the CR and results are so close.

    I've done some individual valuation models on BTX1503 Acne and BTX 1204 Atopic Dermatitis, if just one of the products are successful then it's a company maker. If both make it then we'll be laughing. BTX 1801 has huge potential but I'm not pricing that in yet due to it's infancy stage, needs a lot more work....

    Support level seems like it has been 20.5c-21c. Will buyers take control this coming week, or the week after?

 
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Last
34.5¢
Change
-0.020(5.48%)
Mkt cap ! $543.4M
Open High Low Value Volume
35.5¢ 35.5¢ 34.0¢ $4.566M 13.13M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
11 410003 34.5¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
35.0¢ 346713 8
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Last trade - 16.10pm 28/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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