Thought I would do a little analysis of future revenues based on the business case in the prospectus.
Assumptions I've used
- 4% development fee meaning 3 million CAD per project (50% at FNTP, 50% at COD for first two projects)
- 1.04 AUD to 1 CAD
- 9 MW of royalties per project @ 35000 CAD per year
- Project 1 & 2 COD in Q4 2022
- Project 3,4,5 COD in Q4 2023
- 20 years of royalty payments from COD
- I'm not sure what the waterfall payments will amount to, so assigning them no value for now.
- I'm not sure what the tolling payments will amount to, so assigning them no value for now.
Basically boils down to the following base case revenue from the 5 projects, not including anything for tolling payments, waterfall payments, or equity shares KPO might buy into:
AUD $15,600,000 development fee revenue
AUD $34,398,000 royalty revenues
Given we have ~3,000,000 AUD in staff/corporate costs (ongoing?) these five projects alone probably put us at around break even, or slightly in profit long term, assuming we don't reduce our costs.
Add in some additional projects, additional revenues from tolling & waterfall profits, and I could see this re-rating very quickly as if management execute well.
DYOR, All IMO, please feel free to pick apart my numbers too.
Cheers,
AB
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