yep, that's about my take. I also note:
a) it's only a guidance note and would really only come into play by the takeover panels where "... may affect the market in the underlying securities, for example by bringing about a reduction in the "free float" of the entity. Such an effect on the supply (and perhaps therefore the price) of the securities may, in turn, affect:control or potential control of the entity the acquisition or proposed acquisition of a substantial interest in the entity or the efficient, competitive and informed market for control of the entity's voting securities...." I guess disclosure dilutes these as risks if Athos were intending to go beyond a simple hold and convert and crystalise notional price difference;
b) any scheme of arrangement will require 75% of shareholders which is a whole lot more than they currently hold. Whilst not inconceivable they might get beyond 25%, unlikely in which case they've not bought much transaction leverage. Of course, if they slip past 10%, this could empower them to frustrate any takeover.
c) I think Sustainable Capital might be under some regulatory pressure either now (ie our Takeovers panel) of maybe NYSE or the Canadian exchange assuming they do convert. Possibly Athos is a friendly vehicle by which they are locking in some of the upside whilst restoring compliance.
d) On paper, worst case scenario looks like they'll pick up the difference between AUD0.28 and AUD0.31 (ish) with a free option should anyone else step up to the plate. From what I can gather, this sort of transaction return is aligned with there past performance.
Let's see what happens.
Have a great day
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- Ann: Disclosure under Takeovers Panel GN 20 - Equity Derivatives
yep, that's about my take. I also note:a) it's only a guidance...
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