Not sure if the deal is positive. Maybe NTD was in a defending...

Not sure if the deal is positive. Maybe NTD was in a defending position.

A couple of things are unclear and maybe intentionally not commented by the management.

I assume everybody agrees that after this deal not one single tyre more will be sold in ANZ, correct?

So if NTD adds 118m revenues, who will loose this 118m? If Goodyear/Dunlop was not hoping for or agreed on cannibalisation with NTD, why would they have signed this contract?

The statements re profitability are not consistent:

1) Anticipated accretive to EPS from QFY24
2) Distribution starting Nov23 in NZ and Apr24 in Aussie
3) and then on page2: accretive impact on earnings when distribution commences

Also: They say no funding required or more WC before Q2 of FY25. Why would they need this exactly in this quarter???

So while everything at first glance sounds positive, I have started to think if this release is the preparation for a profit warning and a capital raise. Profit warning as NTD will be forced to sell Goodyear/Dunlop tyres instead of other brands and thereby reduces margin. Capital raise because NTD is still heavily indebted, interest rates hikes are painful and the deal with Goodyear/Dunlop may include a very significant cash-out in Q2 of FY25.

I am not sure about what I have written above. Any comments very welcome. I am invested myself and have trusted the management in the past, but in this case I struggle to understand a couple of things...