W1, Shaidar1974, and MovingAverage, I share your recent thoughts...

W1, Shaidar1974, and MovingAverage, I share your recent thoughts on TER. Or quite simply as W1 would put it “hold long and strong” !! Haha

Danny McCarthy, the managing director of TER (for those new investors to TER) made it quite clear at the recent AGM, along with the other board members present, that they are share holders too, and also “want to get paid”. Those were Danny’s words which were supported by Glen, Nathan, and Megan, fellow board members present at the recent AGM.
Make of that what you will, but if I’m an educated person, considering the current high spot coal prices, recent changes made to TER’s dividend program (Dividend policy updated to be 60-90% of NPAT paid quarterly, announced 26/08/22), and the fact the managing director himself stated he “wants to get paid”.
Let all the above sink in for a moment, no doubt you’ll come to the conclusion that going forward we’ll be receiving no less than $0.10 franked dividends paid per quarter whilst the coal price remains elevated (over US$250/t). The board has also predicted an average coal price of US$276/t out until CY2025. (See attached)

I believe the upcoming Dec Q2 report will be in line with or perhaps even a new record operating EBITA, beating the previous 2022 June Q4 record high operating EBITA of $224 million, despite the new QLD royalties. This is providing there were no unforeseen circumstances that may of occurred over the past three months of course.

Further more it makes sense to pay attention to the current months spot coal price, and perhaps the next 2-3 months out, any further out than that and it’s not an accurate price forecast of what’s to come.

Below is a snippet from TER’s recent 2022 AGM supporting the average coal price of US$276/t out until CY 2025, enabling TER to continue paying $0.10 franked dividends for the next few years. Of course none of us have a crystal ball, however you really do need to factor in current geopolitical circumstances which does support TER’s predicted average coal price of US$276/t for the next 2yrs in my opinion.
For what it’s worth I’m predicting a $0.12 franked dividend to be paid in March 2023…