Pre covid Healius Pathology was making EBITDA margins (pre AASB16) in the low tenth. Thats probably a good indicator of things to come with covid testing largely gone adjusting for the scale differences between Healius and ACL.
What makes you worry about ACL is the talk of latent revenue to come, that is catchup of patient visitations for blood tests prevented across the 3 years of covid and related lock downs and suppressed demand.
Logically for the average Joe in the absence of covid would typically gotten one annual blood check, the three missed blood checks is gone there is no such catchup.
The fact that they are talking about it in their preso and narrative means things are bad and lines up with a pretty weak 24 guidance.
Lastly, paying dividend is always a good thing with the exception of having to do it mostly out of borrowings. That to me is not a good look.
ACL Price at posting:
$2.83 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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