Cheers, good points.
The base case is that the SP accrues the value of the next dividend over the next 6 months. Though not in a neat linear way- my understanding is that most of the increase is closer to the next ex-div date.
Another important consideration is the ongoing reaction to the last earnings announcement- the sentiment that it generated. This sentiment, apparently, can play out over several months- Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) is what the academics call it.
The recent earnings announcement caused a negative sentiment- so the SP could continue to decline, plus or minus the usual ups and downs, for a few months yet after today.
Then there is the macro.
But yep, the ex-dividend day plunge, in itself, is really not an issue in the long run.
IMHO DYOR
Ann: Dividend/Distribution - ANZ, page-69
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