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14:20
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Originally posted by Sqwark77:
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Hi Brumbie,AYUPA being a perpetual MCI (you receive the 5% cash distribution + the 30% imputation credit = 7.1428% ). Further, there is no similar hybrid listed on the ASX. The only perpetual note listed with a comparable interest margin is Ramsay's RHCPA (Sep 22 margin 4.85% + 6mo BBSW 1.0063% = 5.8563% which includes the 30% imputation credit) but which also remains a reasonable comparative buy on today's hybrid market. As you would see the RHCPA price just recently dropped from $105.6 to $100.37 similar to AYUPA dropping in price from $100 to $92 recently. IMHO the next distributions for both occur in late Q3 and their rates still lead all of the current long-term hybrids (i.e.> 5 years to call). It seems that the constant babble about Fed and RBA rate hikes of 3-5 x 0.25% through the next 12-24 will probably boost the BBSW by 2.5%-3.0% but has spooked some but I agree that you are always justified in your caution. Notwithstanding, the fact remains that the current and immediate returns from these 2 lone perpetuals still lead the hybrid pack through at least the next 12-18 months. The recent profit taking on both is all well and good but seems a little premature as both will still be returning over 7% in 2023 if rates proceed as stated. Also I believe that until the banks start issuing preference shares that match this >7% hybrid return there is nothing better around in the current market. P.S. the 6mo has risen from 0.8700% to 1.2457% in 16 days meaning if the RHCPA distribution was struck today it would be returning 4.85% + 1.2457% = 6.0957%. Hoping this helps your investment decision. Regards Sqwark 77.
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Sorry I missed this reply@Sqwark77 . Your analysis of the situation was very valid and astute. There is now a major divergence between Ramsay's RHCPA and AYUPA which makes me further question why the market is punishing this perpetual in particular. It looks like going to $80 at this rate with a very thin buy side and everyone wanting out it seems. I don't think I can deal with that prospect and seriously considering putting that money to work somewhere safer and taking the 10% hit now and moving on.
(20min delay)