The LVR convenant is 50%.
To reproduce the LVR = 37.1% at 31 Dec 2022, I use .858 / 2.310 =37.1%
( 2.310 is from p30 of the presentation 2 Feb 2023, ignores leasehold asset of $31.4M
.858 is from C2 p7 of HY23 financial statements )
Asset values would need to fall 25.7% to get to a LVR of 50% = UNLIKELY.
ie .858 /( .743 x 2.310 ) = 50.0%.
There is also a ICR convenant of 2.1.
The ICR for HY23 = 4.9 .
ICR = Net Property Income / Interest Expense
Net Property Income = Property Income - Property Expenses = 92.0 - 19.9 = 72.1
Interest Expense = Finance costs - accounting interest on ROU Liab - amortisation of borrowing costs
Interest Expense = 15.660 - 50% x 3.4% x 32.58 - .539 = 14.6
Average cost of debt in HY23 = 3.4% ( was 2.2% in FY22 ).
My rough calculation of ICR HY23 = 72.1 / 14.6 = 4.9
Cost of debt will be higher in H2 FY23 compared to H1 FY23 , which will lead to a lower ICR at 30 June 2023.
Suppose average cost of debt = RBA rate + 2% = 3.6% + 2% = 5.6%
Reworking HY23 ICR = 72.1 / ( 14.6 x 5.6 / 3.4 ) = 3.0
My guess for the FY23 ICR = ( 4.9 + 3.0 ) / 2 = 3.9
After FY23 my guess with an RBA rate of 3.6% for the full year is ICR = 3.0, well above the ICR convenant of 2.1.
Tenants would need to default on leases or leases at a lower price ( Incentives ? ) to breach the ICR convenant.
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