Ann: Dividend/Distribution - CRN, page-40

Love your thinking @alfred137
Who could believe CRN is getting thumped today?
I understand WHC and NHC should be getting thumped because the thermal coal price is at 1 year low but they are not down as much as CRN.
Even SMR is virtually flat.

On the other hand Coking coal price is creeping up to 1 year highs.

Rainfall, stable coal price, at the current levels is the key in my opinion.
CRN basically mine around 4mt of coal every quarter.
If they are to surpass the lower run rate of 4.2mt for the quarter, coal price stable, minimal rainfall, contained costs CRN will go higher. When is anyone's guess.
If a special dividend is declared before reporting 1st quarter results you will know that they have not pursued a mine acquisition and they are ahead of forecasts.
I just hope they don't acquire a mine and concentrate all efforts on Curragh extension and the US.
Its my opinion and no doubt many others, that you never want to buy a coal mine when coal prices are high.

SMR were either lucky or smart buying the Isaac Plains back in 2015 for $1.00 but the price of coking coal was around $80 back then when it was all doom and gloom for coal miners when the banks wouldn't lend money.
So too, they bought BHP/Mitsui mines 6 years later when the price of met call weas around $80-$90.

Trading as low as 5 cents 7 years ago. Now $3.50 plus. OMG.

The moral of the story in my opinion is not to buy coal mines when the price of coal is at or close to historic highs. You are essentially buying a mine way more than it's worth. When coal price falls, coal miners and shareholders suffer together.

Right now 43 days in a row with essentially no rain at Curragh that would affect mining.

GLTAH