I take your points onboard.
Yield. Is worked out per annum so I do include the sept 0.5c and the future sept divi which i expect to be 0.5c minimum so I am basing on 1c per annum. previously was 2c per annum and higher when the earnings were strong which they are at moment.
I believe the discount to cash was on the basis it was suspected GRR would be losing money and therefore was factored in to the cash balance vs market cap. currently we are in the money so the sentiment should be based on cash plus future earnings. discount to cash period of below 10c per share was likely due to factoring in cash minus future losses.
It is a roundabout assumption but I believe GRR need at least $90-$100- AUD per ton to be profitable. The C1 figure they give is much less than this but does not factor in all costs so I add a little for other expenses. It would be good if they gave the all in cost figure so we know exactly what the profitability is. Based on inventory, Trade and cash movements last year I estimate real cash wasnt much at all even though they made such large profit. Due to expenditure they were probably going backwards cash wise in the first half (Jan-June) and made up for in second half. At the moment I believe they are making strong margin and next quarterly will be needed for confirmation.
last month the average price received was $118.96 which is clearly above $100-. September quarter was $103.32, July $91.16, March $80.64. So when it was below 10c a share (below cash holdings) it was factoring in potentially losing $30 million cash per year. now it is in a position where it would be making 'tons of money'. I also expect next month AUD figure to be even higher and could be near $140AUD. That would be giving GRR a huge margin (just like its peers). If the margin is $40- per ton then multiply by about 2.6 million and you will see it should be adding $100 million cash per annum. Is that fair value for a company that is being valued at near Zero? I disagree. But, sometimes I might have a point but market disagrees and I always prepare for that. Sometimes Mr Market wants to drive prices up and down in ridiculous ways. I personally hate selling any GRR at less than 30 but I know Mr Market can be a pain in the ass and the only way I have previously made money on GRR was to trade it, rather than simply hold and hope. But I need to see a more prolonged drop off in price for iron ore or very strong rise in AUD or GRR at unreasonable price levels to let go this round.
You speak like you would like price to go down even though you hold. If you are holding then you should be more optimist on this one this time around.
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25.0¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $289.3M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
25.5¢ | 25.5¢ | 25.0¢ | $211.2K | 838.0K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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10 | 439133 | 25.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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25.5¢ | 95475 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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10 | 439133 | 0.250 |
5 | 223086 | 0.245 |
22 | 375832 | 0.240 |
11 | 259498 | 0.235 |
10 | 158579 | 0.230 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.255 | 95475 | 3 |
0.260 | 191965 | 7 |
0.265 | 149325 | 5 |
0.270 | 164537 | 4 |
0.275 | 293998 | 5 |
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