With coal stocks coming off cyclical highs since 2022/23, I...

With coal stocks coming off cyclical highs since 2022/23, I think the sober assessment would have to be balanced between short term and longer term views, keeping in mind coal price will still make fools of us all anyway....

That said, short term it feels like Nhc will probably continue to trade sideways to down until people get a feel for the Northern winter demand, shoulder season rarely gives big up moves, so I'm not exactly rushing to buy in, but thermal stocks are holding up pretty well (much better than met) and thermal coal prices looking stable at $130+ - which given that this is historically high price and we really haven't seen the supply response you'd expect from that... it is pretty heartening that it could continue for a while or could even be a bottom in the price - crazy as that would've sounded 4 years ago. I'm not a trader, so don't really worry too much about short term, not my strength, but I'm not rushing to buy now, just considering some NHC up together with YAL on the drops.

Longer term, very comfortable to buy and hold, with NHC going from 9MT to 15MT in 2028, a fairly well supported thermal coal market from current view, together with NHC's industry low cost of production, they should do well. You're comparison to XJO was 12mths which is vs NHC's cycle high, but if you look over last 3-4 years, you're sitting on $2/sh dividend and ~$2-3/sh CG (wish that was me, but it's not... though enjoyed some WHC/YAL over that time), which is an amazing performance vs XJO. guess it all depends on the time frame of consideration.