I have not given the next dividend much thought, so I cannot...

I have not given the next dividend much thought, so I cannot dispute 10c as a probability with any conviction. It depends on how Management thinks about debt, or expressed less presciptively, about balance sheet liquidity, at EOY.

I often use the concept of time shifting in HC posts, usually in respect to profit recognition. For instance, the Gascoyne $17.5m was recognised in H1FY23, but it was caused by earlier realities, so when normalising H1FY23 and earlier history, we could increase H1FY23 profit, and lower early reported profits. Further, if some of that $17.5m is reversed in a later reporting period, conceptually we could then normalise H1FY23 for greater profit, and the later reporting period for less.

The same time-shifting concept applies to balance sheet liquidity. A change in a date of receiving a payment, or paying a cost or expense has a window-dressing-type effect. Late settlement of rise-and-fall provisions can affect cash-flow, and a profit recognition, whereas unwinding project advances affects liquidity. On liquidity, the H1FY23 Financial report stated, "Cash balances decreased in the six months to $154.8 million. This is due to the unwinding of project advances received in prior periods, the investment in working capital in recent long-term mining contract awards and extensions and incremental investment in acquisitions of strategic listed equities." The narative on this may change for 30 June 2023, and circumstances may allow a healthy dividend-payout ratio. Your 10c dividend call may not be incorrect, other things being equal. One of the "other things" would be the cash outflow occasioned by the recently announced 8.5c dividend being higher than usual.

The foregoing relates to the things that affect Management's thinking when deciding on the quantum of the final FY23 dividend.