Hi All
I feel that the Investor Presentation highlights what will be a positive coming two years. Here are what I see as the key highlights:
1. VPC posted strong performance fees (with SCI and ROC noteworthy contributors). PAC expects performance fees to increase sustainably and significantly in FY24 and beyond - Slide 9/39 of the Investor Presentation. This is from a base of $AUD14.5M- Slide 2/39 of the Investor Presentation. Note on slide 23/39 of the Investor Presentation says that PAC is expecting to earn these in 2H23 as "catch up" fees. Revenue recognition in 2022 only $5.603M (see note 1 of Financial Report).
2. If Pennybacker achieves $US1.5B for Fund 6, it will become a Tier 1 Boutique (contributes more than $4M). Currently US450M/US$1.5B (30% of they way there) - Slide 19/39 of the Investor Presentation
3. GQG currently valued at $1.46 on the books. @$1.70 on 26/08/2022, 24c increase and holding 119,121,254 shares, there is an increase of $28.6M pre-tax|$21.45M after tax of 25%. After tax add 42c to NAV per share of $10.26 ($10.68) - NAV on slide 8/39 of the Investor Presentation
4. Growth in FUM and EPS from an acquisition in FY23. Hopefully this can be executed prior to Christmas 2022
There is a lot of other good information in here and it is well worth the read. The Portfolio update section has significant detail - From slide 13/39 to 19/39 of the Investor Presentation
In terms of forward guidance, believe the following is applicable:
1. Greater than 10% growth in management fees, assume add AUD4c to EPS - Slide 23/39 of the Investor Presentation (VPC, Pennybacker, Astarte and IFP)
2. Full year of GQG - Add $US2.4M, or US+4.7c or AUD+6.5c - Slide 23/39 of the Investor Presentation
3. Full Year of Banner Oaks - 17c increase in revenue per share for the full year, so add 8.5c to current year - Slide 23/39 of the Investor Presentation
4. New credit facility to accelerate growth into investments (note multiple, not singular investment). Maybe a couple of Banner Oak investments on the horizon - Slide 22/39 of the Investor Presentation
5. Performance fees earned by VPC and Pennybacker in FY22 have not been fully recognised and are delayed until FY23. Only $AUD5.603M recognised out of $AUD14.5M - $AUD8.897M or AUD17c in revenue per share. Reduce by 25% tax and it is 12.75c.
This is approximately AUD+32c to EPS. Adding this to underlying EPS of 53c takes us to a forward estimate EPS of 85c. This is 62% growth.
I may have looked at too many numbers today
I am not certain whether the $AUD14.5M in performance fees is pre or post tax. I have assumed pre-tax, so decreased by 25%.
The detractors to previously anticipated EPS are:
1. Carlisle? Is the performance here having a negative impact on EPS?
2. Less: Share of non-controlling interests of $2.503M or 5c per share; does anyone one what this is attributable too? I couldn't find anything in the notes. The year before it was only $275k.
Any other thoughts? Does anyone know what the detractors are from a financial perspective.
Best of Luck
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