Just as a preview of next weeks announcement by S32 of its annual result, here it is (or at least my approximation of it). My basis is the H1FY22 result, plus the production and prices from H2FY22 (as S32 has already told us), then some adjustments to costs (basically H1 costs plus some conservative allowances for increases in H2).
It is all in USDollars per S32 reporting.
Product ProductionUnit Price Unit Production Price Revenue Production Price Revenue Production Av. Price Revenue H1FY22 H1FY22 H1FY22 H2FY22 H2FY22 H2FY22 FY22 FY22 FY22 USD$/unit USD$M USD$M Worsley Alumina kt USD$/t 1979 389 770 2012 428 861 3991 409 1631 Brazil Alumina kt USD$/t 631 387 244 666 419 279 1297 403 523 Brazil Aluminium kt USD$/t 0 3000 0 0.5 3000 2 0.5 3000 2 Hillside Aluminium kt USD$/t 358 2952 1057 356 3347 1192 714 3149 2248 Mozal Alumium kt USD$/t 136 3041 414 142 3591 510 278 3322 923 Sierra Gorda CuEquiv kt USD$/lb 0 0 31 3.50 217 31 3.50 217 Cannington Silver koz USD$/oz 6710 21 141 6236 21 131 12946 21 272 Cannington Lead kt USD$/t 60.2 2180 131 60.4 1902 115 120.6 2041 246 Cannington Zinc kt USD$/t 32.7 2988 98 31.8 3473 110 64.5 3227 208 Cerro Matoso Nickel kt USD$/lb 20.3 8.39 382 21.4 11.64 558 41.7 10.06 939 Illawarra MetCoal kt USD$/t 2767 303 838 2945 457 1346 5712 382 2184 Illawarra EnergyCoal kt USD$/t 378 108 41 419 200 84 797 156 125 Aust Manganese kwmt USD$/dmtu 1704 4.59 391 1659 6.05 502 3363 5.31 893 South Africa Manganese kwmt USD$/dmtu 1053 3.47 183 1016 4.39 223 2069 3.92 406 GROSS PRODUCT REVENUE 4689 6129 10818 less Operating Costs for H1 use Revenue minus EBITDA -2818 -2731 -5549 for H2 add 500 for SG plus extra disruption costs, royalties -500 -500 EBITDA 1871 2898 4769 less DA -357 -357 -714 EBIT 1514 2541 4055 less Net Interest for H1 ~12, , for H2 assume 50 incl SG -12 -50 -62 PBT 1502 2491 3993 minus tax based on H1 31.3% 0.313 -470 -780 -1250 PAT 1032 1711 2743 Shares on issue 4650 4650 4650 EPS USD$ 0.222 0.368 0.590 DPS at 40% payout ratio USD$ 0.089 0.147 0.236 AUD$ at 70c exchange rate
Of course there will be some exceptional accounting adjustments, but the underlying profit etc will be roughly as above.
H2FY22 EPS will be USD$0.368 - ie over AUD 50cps
Full year EPS will be USD$0.59 - ie about AUD 84cps
Final div if paid out per policy at 40% of EPS will be USD$0.147 - ie about AUD 21cps FF
And at AUD$4.12 (todays close) S32 is trading on a PE just less than 5,
It will take the market a little while to accept this phenomenal result.
Let's check back next week to see if my calcs are close to reality.
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