Yes, it held up better than I thought it might. I have not looked closely at the structure, but I wonder if the 8% on land+improvements only covers interest and running cost + the 0.5 cents in distribution? That is, whether the bulk of a return to investors relies on the variable return from the crop. It is a model I could live with, but with effectively a fixed land rental cost (it does not appear to go up with CPI based on the limited reading I've done), will this weaken it in years to come? In other words, if I want to invest in a rural property trust, do I want the greater certainty of something like RFF, or the more freewheeling VTH?
In terms of the variable component of the return I expect, given the past relationship with Costa and an understanding of the size of the crop and the prevailing market price, they would be in a position to give much better guidance than they have. Even if it was a 'barring unforseen circumstances as can arise with weather events, at this stage we anticipate the variable component of the rent to fall in the range x to y cents per share'. But maybe that is just me, and they would argue it does nothing but make a rod for their own back. Time will tell how this plays out from year to year, and if they do this and deliver additional each year from the variable component, people will become comfortable with the process.
VTH Price at posting:
93.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held