WDS

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$29.26 woodside energy group ltd

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curiouswon

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31/08/22

20:43

Post #: 63445587
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Originally posted by madamswer: ↑

"1. Over what period are you thinking when you are looking at "potential upside" eg 1,2,3,4 years"

Good question, because there's a big difference between 50% upside to intrinsic value being delivered in one year compared to over three years.

The answer is that it generally depends on the nature of the stock in question.

I have no specific time horizon expectation but experience has taught me to view deep value (i.e., mostly cyclical) stocks differently to long-duration growth stocks.

In the case of the former, when I get them right, the upside is usually banked within 12 to 18 months, but in the case of the latter it can take several years for it to play out fully (but usually with part-upside being harvested along the way... by way of example of this in theory, at the risk of being accused as cross promoting, see here: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/63442702/single) .

"2. You would seem to mostly be allocating 1 to 4 % to selected stocks - does this mean that you have a portfolio of around 30 stocks?"

It's probably more like 45 stocks big (a veritable zoo of them; too many, I know)

As much as I try to avoid having just 1% positions where I can help it (because it less impactful on overall returns), it is unavoidable, I've found over time because a.) the desire to avoid friction costs such as tax and brokerage, and b.) I tend to be a bit of a hunter-gatherer-hoarder of businesses.

So, while I have a number of ~1% positions (and even several sub-1% positions for various legacy reasons), I also have a few concentrated positions (5% to 6%... well, concentrated for me, that is).

So my portfolio looks like a bit of a lognormal distribution, with a small number of punchy 5% to 6% positions, followed by a longish tail of positions 2% and smaller

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Thank You for your explanation, revelations, insights...., wisdom......!!

WDS Price at posting: $34.25 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $29.26		Change 0.030(0.10%)		Mkt cap ! $55.55B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$29.25	$29.37	$29.14	$82.84M	2.833M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	30080	$29.25

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$29.27	1356	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	23734	29.250
1	100	29.240
1	5000	29.220
11	17583	29.200
5	3273	29.190

Price($)	Vol.	No.
29.270	29	1
29.290	2440	2
29.320	100000	1
29.330	10611	2
29.340	960	5

Last trade - 16.10pm 05/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

WDS (ASX) Chart

Thank You for your explanation, revelations, insights....,...

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