If Russia pulls out of Ukraine, the troops might miss the turn on the way back home, and end up close to let's say Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan.
Ensuring that 20% initial drop then gets transformed to 50% surge.
The bottom line is - oil and gas prices are not going down anytime soon. Unfortunately world is in a very messy state, with ample supply of potential conflicts that could to be ignited, and most of them would impact energy supply.
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If Russia pulls out of Ukraine, the troops might miss the turn...
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