https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202302/1285367.shtmlfull article...

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202302/1285367.shtml

full article in the link above.

Steel prospects if there is no major downturn is likely going to be healthy, underpinned by chinas reopening and the policy support for the real estate sector.




China's steel industry will remain healthy, vigorous in 2023; Australian imports to expand

Pent-up demand for cars, ships, appliances will buoy sector

By GT staff reportersPublished: Feb 13, 2023 09:39 PM

China's steel industry, an economic gauge, will remain healthy and vigorous, driven by pent-up demand after the nation's downgraded epidemic response and efforts to stabilize supplies and curb prices, according to insiders at a membership conference of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) on Monday.

Backed by a stabilized real estate market and the rebound of other steel-consuming industries such as vehicles, ships and home appliances, the steel sector will trend higher in 2023, said CISA's Executive Chair He Wenbo at the meeting.

As a result, a boost is likely for imports of iron ore and coking coal from countries including Australia, a major supplier of bulk commodities, experts said.

The positive outlook for steel producers is based on the improving prospects of the vehicle sector and the nation's shipyards, both of which are important steel consumption industries.

Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic last year, car sales were weak. As the epidemic eased and tax breaks for vehicle purchases were extended, production and sales improved, He said, and the trend will persist this year.

In 2023, China's car sales are expected to return to the level of 2017, which is estimated to be at least 28 million units, bolstered by strong exports, especially when it comes to new-energy vehicles, according to the China Automobile Dealers Association.

China's shipbuilding industry will remain stable. Factors such as the aging of existing ships, the pressure of new environmental regulations, the reshaping of global trade routes caused by geopolitics and the increase in demand, will drive up demand for shipbuilding steel, He said.

Moreover, the rapid development of domestic multimodal transport, road-to-rail transportation and the development of China-Europe freight trains will support the demand this year for containers, another steel-consuming sector, He noted.

Furthermore, the real estate market, the largest steel consumption industry, is experiencing a positive trend amid policy support this year.

Other related businesses will also stay strong, such as the sales of home appliances, driven by pent-up demand and stimulus packages such as coupons provided by local governments and companies.

Due to global high inflation, prices for bulk commodities, including raw materials for steel making, have stayed high, posing challenges to the world's economic recovery.

China's resilient demand for steel is expected to inject new impetus into the economic recovery in the country and also around the world. The World Steel Association has predicted that global steel consumption in 2023 will be 1.814 billion tons, of which China alone will take about half.

In January, the new order index for domestic steel industry was 43.9, an increase of 5 points from the previous month, according to the China iron and steel industry purchasing managers' index, released by the CFLP Steel Logistics Professional Committee