Given the potential political backlash, I am pleasantly...

Given the potential political backlash, I am pleasantly surprised that they have decided to go with 20% export allowance. How they got to that decision will no doubt be the subject of many conjectures, but I will leave that alone till someone actually finds some evidence of backroom dealings cos until then, life will go on... just like how the world moved on after MM gave the dodgy 50% exemption to BPT

This is why I have always maintained that politics is a no-win sh1tshow because no matter what you do, there will be some people who will be unhappy because whether we accept it or not, it is hard for people to be content no matter how much is given to them.

Is 20% sufficient to stimulate production growth? I believe it is but it is obviously very much dependent on the size of the output. 20% of a small output is never going to make any difference. 20% of 87TJ/d = 17TJ/d. Based on an assumed dom price of 7.50 and LNG netback price of 15, the 20% export allowance will add an additional value of 114mn to the project. For MIN's planned 250TJ/d, the additional value add will be far higher.

Now that the policy change is in place, I had spent most of my morning updating my DCF model, but there is a lot of work to be done as I now need to expand the no of individual years out to 2030 so that the exit year (perpetual growth) does NOT include the export amounts.

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