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I have to break ranks here. I find The JLster's posts quite...

  1. 2,488 Posts.
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    I have to break ranks here. I find The JLster's posts quite entertaining, mostly. They are useful because they can usually be debunked, with a bit of thought and some basic research. Occasionally he makes a reasonable point but mostly there is a key flaw that, when spotted, just blows up the logic.
    Take his current post:
    "If the below table is anyway near correct". Well, firstly it isn't, it's outdated information, typical of what The JLster finds with a Google search - but more on this shortly.
    But let's allow, for the sake of an argument, that his table is in fact correct. The rest of The JLsters argument, based on the table, is also weak. Fail. Must do better.
    Under the newly announced policy, there is no legislative or even moral requirement for newly export-enabled domestic producers to first satisfy the domestic market, as The JLster implies. They could, and probably would, export all they were allowed to under the new policy, if it was more in their interests. What would happen domestically? Well, there would potentially be a shortfall until short supply and excess demand caused a gas price surge. That's how markets work.
    But that's academic because the base assumption of an imminent shortfall is itself incorrect. The JLster does not name the source of his table, nor how far back it might have been relevant. [I can't be bothered searching, but my failing memory tells me it has something to do with AEMO]. How do I know it is wrong? - because in big print in all the papers during the last few days have been statements like:
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6475/6475289-e43a4f127fd6b0eb042e7ddd66e3b61d.jpg
    It's pretty obvious that the Premier and his advisers are currently not seeing any shortfall before 2030. And they should know. So JLster, your base assumption is wrong.

    You tell us you hold both Woodside and Santos. How that meshes with your generally Green sentiments I can't resolve, nor do I need to know. It would probably be more useful for you to establish yourself as a regular commentator over on those forums [fora?] , rather than continue to pedal poor negative arguments here, as entertaining as they sometimes are.
    Just my thoughts. IW.

 
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