CVN 1.67% 14.8¢ carnarvon energy limited

Ok. Pre-drill, 80% of the potential hydrocarbons and most of the...

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    Ok. Pre-drill, 80% of the potential hydrocarbons and most of the risk was associated with the Milne. The biggest risk for this section was reservoir as the Milne had poor development where intersected previously.
    The fact that it has intervals interpreted to be porous and permeable with hydrocarbon shows is massive.

    Once again it's the language that is the problem. When you say "While drilling through the Crespin and Milne Members, a number of sandstone intervals have been encountered." the language is so dry that it sounds a lot more like thinner sand "intervals" with porous zones of those thinner intervals and as "a number" is shared with the Crespin, not necessarily the 4 predicted reservoirs in the Milne.

    Now the words don't actually say that, "a number" could be 5 (1 Crespin, 4 Milne) and "sandstone intervals" could be full and thick reservoirs with 80m zones.

    It's careful language, which I'm not criticizing at all. Just in trying to understand the lack of market response to the largest and riskiest section appearing to have hydrocarbons and less risk, one factor might be that they didn't say "along with the newly prospective reservoir in the Crespin, a number of the Milne secondary targets had sandstone reservoirs interpreted to be porous and permeable with hydrocarbon indications". Which might sound a little less dry and untethered to the pre-drill estimates.

    Maybe it's just that it's run pretty far already on unanticipated light oil and the Caley stole all the Milne's thunder. The Milne was supposed to be the surprise monster upside.

    3% on the monster in the Milne is not what I would have expected.

    Maybe it's less of a monster than it could have been, maybe the language is simply careful. Maybe it's a bit of both. Regardless of whether it lives up to pre-drill estimates and is thinner than expected with less sands, having a prospective Milne is huge.

    This has pretty much been a dream drill so far, until logging tells us the state of the last section.
    Last edited by stockle_andrew: 31/07/18
 
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