CVN 4.65% 22.5¢ carnarvon energy limited

If in fact they can keep capex to US$2.0B (based on the Feb 2022...

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    If in fact they can keep capex to US$2.0B (based on the Feb 2022 STO estimate) that would be very impressive. Given the way capex blowouts have occurred across the globe in the last couple of years, I imagine this is assuming the revised approach, i.e. repurposing an existing FPSO and drilling fewer wells to start, relying on cashflow to do the others. If you assume say a 15% capex blowout (just to be safe) it'd look something like this, all at 0.65 ROE:

    Project capex: US$2.3B
    CVN share: US$230M
    less CPC carry: US$90M
    Balance US$140M
    less CVN cash 31/12: US$114.4M
    Debt required: US$25.6M

    Obviously they can't erode their cash down to zero and there's corporate costs, time value of money etc that has to be factored in, but that's my rough guide.
 
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