Ann: DOW: Presentation - Offer for Spotless & equity raising, page-49

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yanlin

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21/03/17

12:17

Post #: 23508288
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Originally posted by HotCopter ↑

I agree. It's a very decent short term proposition at $1.06 - money to be made. The idea that DOW will walk if SPO cuts guidance is fairly nonsensical - at worst they could use it to terminate the offer and then re-bid (this is why they have it as a protection). But this is unlikely - they are wedded to it now after buying 19.9% and raising capital.

The 90% minimum acceptance threshold is completely standard. This can be waived by DOW at any time. However, DOW will want to get 90% so it can de-list this and get the synergies. This is very important. The reality is that to get 90% is virtually impossible without the support of the target board. Studies on past takeovers show that retail investors for the most part will take the recommendation of the board when deciding what to do. As a result, SPO will try to trade that recommendation for a higher bid price and less conditionality on the offer.

I see the sequence of events from here as follows - either of these two events:
1) SPO does not engage with DOW but says the offer is too low. The ball is then in DOW's court.
2) SPO engages with DOW and a slightly higher offer is made.

I am in this morning.

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HC, now you are talking.
Option 2 is my favoured outcome, as we have a new Chairman, an MD that cannot survive (no matter what the bid outcome will be), financiers that will support a reversion towards a "friendly" bid and the likely separation of the laundries business into a new listed entity that will provide some existing SPO directors/ executives with an opportunity to continue in gainful employment.
There has got to be 10%+ uplift in the bid price for SPO support to follow. This is my tip.

SPO Price at posting: $1.06 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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Ann: DOW: Presentation - Offer for Spotless & equity raising, page-49

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