This is an excellent announcement. A fairly muted response on market yesterday was a surprise. While it's not an Earth shattering NPV that will help us all retire, relative to the market cap, the JV by itself is trading on a P/NPV of 0.4x. That's for a fully funded, low capex, extremely high IRR project that has a very short pay back. Also, given that it is essentially not a mine i.e. it will source graphite from Maniry mainly post the first two years, the project life of 25 years is not relevant - unless I'm missing something. To me this implies that, all else equal, cashflows will continue. Now it's probably conservative to cap it at 25 years vs 40-50 etc but realistically the total net present value of cashflows is likely to be a lot higher.
So we have a fully funded JV that will be revenue generating from next year that's trading on a P/NPV of just 0.4x - crazy.
That also means that you get Maniry "for free" on the above valuation metric. When you add Maniry in the P/NPV falls below 10% or 0.1x
This is crazy cheap and great to see them meeting timelines and key objectives even though there was a period of radio silence that had me a bit worried.
Also, for those eagle eyed investors, the IRR of the project has gone up since the scoping study from JUST 405% to a mind boggling 571%. This has been driven by an increase in price assumptions on the revenue side, partially offset by an increase in costs. All $ figures in the presentation are in US too, so our AUD equivalent has also improved given the weaker currency.
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- Ann: Downstream Graphite Processing JV set to Commence in India
Ann: Downstream Graphite Processing JV set to Commence in India, page-23
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