PLS 0.75% $4.01 pilbara minerals limited

I think that this is an excellent announcement. I, like many, am...

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    I think that this is an excellent announcement. I, like many, am a bit disappointed it's a Chinese firm, and not LG, Sumitomo or another POSCO venture. That said, Ganfeng has excellent IP and a successful track record of producing all four major lithium midstream (Phosphate/Sulfate) and downstream (Carbonate/Hydroxide) products. They have the know-how we need, including a much broader base of experience than POSCO.

    Here are what I consider the most important points:

    1. Ganfeng will provide the IP, and the technical staff to ensure that things run smoothly, while PLS has the right to the IP and the opportunity to second staff. In English, we get to learn on the job how to construct and run a dual-product Carbonate/Hydroxide plant from the industry leader in conversion, we get access to the IP, and we get to own 50% of the venture. That's a step-up from the 18/30% with the POSCO deal, and it also seems to point towards us being able to eventually build, run and own 100% of our third plant, when that future opportunity comes.

    2. I've seen several posters touch on the Calix JV. In the three years it will take to move this down the road and become an actual JV with a plant, the Calix JV will have had the chance to run it's course, and see if it will work (I've gone over this several times, and it should work, as long as we have sufficient electrical power). Two thoughts on this topic:

    A. As I've indicated before, I would like to see PLS purchase the IP for the Calix Calcination Tech, only. Calix has money issues, but as a Lithium Company, I have no interest in most of what Calix does. I'd rather just purchase the calcination IP and their share of the JV and send Calix off on their merry way (no offense to Calix holders, I hope the cash you'd get helps your journey and I wish you luck).

    B. The Calix JV technology pertains specifically to the calcination process (roasting), which converts the alpha Spodumene to beta Spodumene. The rest of the process, post-calcination, depends on the reagents and flowsheet employed. As designed, the Calix JV will produce Lithium Phosphate, but one could just as easily produce Lithium Sulfate, which is more desirable, if producing Carbonate or Hydroxide.

    Ganfeng has the experience, IP and people to allow us to produce sulfate, as well as phosphate, assuming the Calix JV works as planned, and also has the ability to assist us if the calcination works but we have "issues" with the rest (chemical aspect) of the refining process. This would be especially desirable because we could begin shipping Lithium Phosphate to Chinese firms that want to produce LFP batteries while also shipping Lithium Sulfate to clients that want to produce either Carbonate or Lithium Hydroxide, and it could all be done at the mine site.

    3. I'm surprised this is not getting more attention, but as part of the announcement, PLS has explicitly stated that we should hear about the review results related to additional expansion, beyond P1000, by the end of the June 24 quarter. That's only three months away.

    4. The entire deal has a built-in safety agreement in that, if the JV does not move forward after the initial study is concluded, Ganfeng will increase their OTA to take-on another 100 ktpa of our spodumene.

    5. As for the location, first and foremost, it seems a foregone conclusion that the midstream will be at the mine site and utilize the Calix JV facility, and that the real question is, where will the Carbonate/Hydroxide Plant be constructed. Really, I only see two potential locations, and those are Australia or Indonesia.

    The announcement clearly indicates that it will be located in a Lithium Hub. China, Zimbabwe, South Korea, Japan, and India all have "Lithium Hubs" already in the works (and by that I mean at least $1B of construction already in the works). Of those, I don't see Ganfeng being welcome in SoKo, Japan, or especially India, and I don't see PLS and their conservative management wanting anything to do with Zimbabwe. The discussion of being IRA-compliant means China is a no go. That leaves Oz and the area around Karawang, Indonesia, where LG and Hyundai have a multi-billion dollar plant nearing completion and CATL has a near $6B JV under construction. Indonesia is also relatively close, when it comes to transportation (it's much closer than China or SoKo).

    Mr. Market will do what Mr. Market will do. In the short term, that can be anything, but in the long run, good management and intelligent allocation of capital will always outperform the overall market, especially when dealing with an industry where even "pessimistic" analysts see average growth rates of 23% for the next seven years.

    As an overarching GUESS, based on what I've seen out of Dale and the rest of PLS management, my guess would be the new plant will be in Indonesia, and is a stepping stone towards PLS eventually building their own, 100% owned downstream plant in Australia. By then, they will have had time to plan their post-P1000 expansion, they will have the experience of the POSCO and Ganfeng JVs under their belt, including IP and staff with in-plant experience, and just as importantly, there will be a few Australian contractors which will have cut their teeth on Hydroxide plants, and will have (hopefully) learned from the many (MANY) mistakes encountered in constructing Australia's first three Hydroxide Plants. Time will tell.

    Best regards, and have a nice week, all.
 
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