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23/03/17
12:51
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Originally posted by Bortgm
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That's a little bit rough on management asking for them to pay the price for a poor SP. The team needs to keep performing and you are entitled to hold them accountable to that level of performance however precious metal stocks are extremely volatile and currently PM stocks in Australia are seemingly very undervalued on a comparative global scale. Just look at the multiples NST is trading at for example and compare them to the majors in the US. A return to the norm will eventuate or the big international majors will be stoking the M&A fire and picking these assets up for a song.
The critical thing is that management are building a potential 200moz/annum company with an AISC of around $1,050 AUD. Throw in a gold price of say $1,600/oz AUD and you get a potential EBITDA of circa $100m per year. Taking out tax and depreciation etc, we should be left with around $60m per annum profit, that puts us at a forward looking P/E ratio of around 3 (based on the 200moz/yr), and that's for a long life mine with plenty room to expand the resource.
Personally I'm taking the chance to buy these dips and hope for another hit to the gold price so that the price sinks further. Each to their own however, the instant gratification people need these days is not what value investing is all about from my viewpoint. These short term anomalies with the SP are an opportunity as long as you understand the risk and are patient enough to wait out the market SP gyrations.
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This announcement today pretty much confirms:
# resource expansion
# reserve conversion (close the value gap to GOR)
# reduced AISC
# expansion of +200mozs for a long mine life
NST has a phenomenal MC vs various metrics compared to BLK (and WGX, recent spin-out of Metals X) ... been buying both today ...