Sharpinvestor,Your calculations are way off.Yes 40,000 BO to...

Sharpinvestor,

Your calculations are way off.

Yes 40,000 BO to 31/12/13 = 8,000 I'd say at $60 per barrel = $480,000

With production now at 430 bopd, I'd say that works out @ 520 bopd on average for 40 days so far in 2014.

So 20,800 BO works out @ 4,160 = $250,000 to date in 2014.

Going forward Orca's current production is 86 BOPD (plus maybe some Fury production, but ain't seen anything to say it is online yet).

If the pump manages to double production your looking at 170 bopd = $10,000 a day. Burruna 3 @ 500 bopd adds another $6,000 a day.

So your looking at near term cash-flow of @ $16,000 a day, which will then start to tail of day by day, by the end of April cash-flow could easily be below $10,000 a day and falling. By end of 2014 under $5,000 a day.

The OIIP figures for the Mutra are much lower than I was expecting to see, that's for sure, your only looking at maybe 100,000 BO net to Orca over the 2 blocks going by the 2C number which is nothing when you add in the cost of more wells etc.

Yes it will make some money but not a lot.

The upside is now in PEL110 and Seabiscuit. With the emphasise on Seabiscuit, its crucial they get that drilled soon.

That is regarded as a low risk prospect with an overall chance of success put at over 50%. If it is successful to anything like the figures I've seen and worked on, then shareholders will be very happy indeed.

Until then, these existing wells are just putting some cash back in the bank account to help pay the cost of drilling future wells.

Wouldn't mind them doing a 10% share buyback at the current shareprice, it will just tighten things up even more and amplify any success at Seabiscuit or the prospects on PEL110 once they are firmed up.

LOTM