HMX 2.56% 3.8¢ hammer metals limited

I think this is actually an opportunity in disguise for the Mt...

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  1. 5,034 Posts.
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    I think this is actually an opportunity in disguise for the Mt Isa region, the entire area is typified by lots of small stranded Cu deposits in different hands often without the economy of scale. With the Glencore merger with Teck and from past behavior of Glencore it seems they want out of copper and the highest grade in the world won't stop them from exiting (e.g. sale of CSA mine near Cobar to Metals Acquisition Corporation), a long mine life at low cost (sale of Ernest Henry operation to EVN) and a world-class orebody and infrastructure with integrated copper concentrators and refineries in Mt Isa and Townsville won't stop them exiting either. They are determined to give away value and exit copper (at least in QLD and NSW it seems) and this speaks to management who already have tunnel vision.

    This tunnel vision often offers value for potential acquirers who are prepared to buy the asset for the right price and assuming we can rule out any Chinese company due to FIRB, one of the most obvious acquirers could actually be Metals Acquisition Corporation SPAC which many have rumored to go to an ASX or even dual IPO in the future. Everyone in the ASX market knows that with OZL gone there is no decent ASX exposure to copper miners anymore except SFR who might have their hands full developing Botswana and the Spanish operations although don't rule them out because they brought the Spanish assets as long-term established operations.

    The other possibility is this might just be Glencore throwing their toys out of the cot because of their issues with the QLD State Government but announcing it to the town of Mt Isa is a big step and not taken lightly. They have participated in some JVs but done nothing meaningful in the Mt Isa region since building Ernest Henry in the late 1990s and expanding and going deeper at some of their Mt Isa mines.

    A new owner of the Mt Isa Copper assets might want to get more involved and act in a more entrepreneurial way than the previous iterations of MIM/Xstrata & Glencore. After all - although some of the operations are deep and high cost - its not every day that a world-class deposit changes hands so will be interesting to see if Glencore are interested in a closure process or have a bit more of an open mind about a sales process for the Mt Isa Copper assets. Potential acquirers could be Antofagasta or Codelco (if they want to reduce exposure to Chile & Argentina), Freeport McMo Ran (US why not?), probably not BHP, First Quantum Minerals (Canadian) maybe Ivanhoe and Metals Acquisition Corporation. As before - I think we can rule out BHP, OZL but I bet Bill Beamont at DVP would be having a close look.
 
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