Ann: Drilling commences at Mukuyu-2 Appraisal Well, page-159

"if shares are dumped by recent participants what does that say about their confidence?"

Absolutely nothing. Most SIs wouldn't even know what we do. They get set on placement and take their 10-20% profit and move on. The ones who already hold will sell some and reset lower and continue to hold.
The better test is to look at the oppies. Tiny selling on them because they're being held as freebies for the longer term. IMO that proves it's SIs selling their heads at 16 to refill at 15 or to take their quick profit and move on.
I reckon this will start moving before the weeks' out.