three dead in nz resistance in hk,india,japan

Sudden high death rate in NZ compared to similar deaths in UK (4) which has 10 x more cases plus tamiflu resistance emerging in 4 countries (incl sanfrancisco USA )- may indicate second wave has already begun.
below dialogue from flu expert who has called every twist and turn in this saga accuratly from the start

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeniseMc
Q:Niman, I know that in the past you have expressed the opinion that this pandemic will follow the pattern of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. I believe that the spring/summer outbreak in 1918 died down in August and peaked again in October and February. Do you envision that happening again, or do you believe that this novel H1N1 will be one continuous wave rather than the herald wave followed by subsequent second and third waves?

Also, what is your opinion regarding the virus circulating in Argentina and New Zealand and elsewhere in the southern hemisphere? Do you believe that it is a strain that has adapted to spread faster in humans (temperature adjustment) or the original strain? Do you think they are circulating simultaneously, one on the southern hemispehre and one in the northern? Have there been enough sequences published to determine which one is dominant now?

Thanks for your opinions.

Answer:The virus has a lot to work with and although sequences are being deposited promptly, there are many holes in the database as well as delays. Although H274Y has now been reported in Denmark, Japan, and Hong Kong (in a patient who arrived from San Francisco and didn't take tamiflu), the number of pandemic H1n1 sequences with H274Y remains are ZERO (as of this morning). The PB2 E627K was in the original and first clone from Shanghai, but not the second clone.
There are a lot of open issues with teh sequences.

Most deatsh in South America, including Argentina, were in the past week, so these sequences are not available.

The rapid rise in deaths in the southern hemisphere signals a change, but its not obvious in the database yet.

I expect the virus to evolve, and to evolve more rapidly as the flu season grows in the soiuthern hemisphere and more of the population develops antibodies to the current strain.

The virus is just starting to roll and one or two minor changes can have a MAJOR effect.

Right now it still looks like a 1918 train wreck between trains on the same track which are gathering speed and heading towards each other.