BNL blue star helium limited

Ann: Drilling Complete Transitioning to Commercial Production, page-4

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    Dont get your hopes up just yet..

    Sales contracts is what is needed..

    Great—here’s a high-level breakdown of the 10 June 2025 Galactica drilling update and how it relates to BNL’s potential to hit the $0.01 option strike price:

    Key Takeaways from the Release

    1. All Six Wells Successful

    All six wells from the 2025 Galactica drilling campaign (plus State 16) show consistent, commercially viable helium and CO₂ flows—this validates the field and accelerates the timeline for production commencement.

    2. Transition to Commercial Production (H2 2025)

    • Initial production will begin via the Pinon Canyon Plant in H2 2025.
    • The plant design, equipment mobilization, and tie-in activities are already in progress.

    3. Well Flow Rates

    The seven wells (State 16 and six Jackson wells) exhibit the following potential stabilised flow rates:

    WellHe%CO₂%Flow Rate (Mscfd)Max Rate (Mscfd)
    State 16 SWSE 30542.1761.56250–350441
    Jackson 31 SENW 30542.2069.00300–400500
    Jackson 4 L4 31541.1885.93250–350450
    Jackson 29 SWNW 30543.3048.66350–450550
    Jackson 27 SESW 30540.4198.31350–450550
    Jackson 2 L4 31541.2277.77300–400500
    State 9 SWSE 30541.5280.48400–500600

    These are substantial flow rates, especially the State 9 and Jackson 29 wells, with high helium concentrations.

    4. Phased Growth Strategy

    • Phase 1: Initial tie-in and production from the current wells.
    • Phase 2: Additional drilling (6–10 wells already identified; 20–30 more in pipeline), plus CO₂ monetization.
    • Potential for a second processing facility based on Pinon Canyon success.

    5. Marketing & Offtake

    • Actively developing offtake agreements—key for revenue visibility.
    • Focus on long-term contracts, reducing price volatility.

    Financial Relevance: Can This Drive BNL Past $0.01?

    BNL’s ability to exceed the $0.01 option strike price depends on how the market prices in cash flows and derisking from this production phase. Here's why it could:

    Bullish Catalysts

    • Commercial Production Start: Set for H2 2025; a strong market trigger.
    • Flow Rates: High enough to support early and scalable revenues.
    • Offtake Agreements: Expected to de-risk revenue.
    • JV Model: Though 50% of revenue is shared, the CapEx burden is also reduced.
    • CO₂ Monetization: Not priced in yet, but adds future upside.

    ⚠️ Risks to Consider

    • Execution delays (plant construction, regulatory).
    • Helium pricing volatility.
    • Market’s ongoing hesitation due to option overhang (468M options), which may cap near-term price appreciation until derisking fully priced in.

    Strategic Forecast

    To justify a post-option price of $0.012 or higher, the market will likely need:

    • Proof of stable helium sales and revenue (likely post-H2 2025).
    • Expansion drill results or second plant approval.
    • Positive helium pricing environment.

    Remember to confirm numbers as I am just throwing this in on the phone..

 
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