It's generally accepted the market in general, short term especially, reflects prices moving in relation to guidance and expectations vs actual results and changes to future expectations. Markets are somewhat 'efficient' overlaying future expectations on fundamental value (whatever that is based on moods of the day). Positive outperformance such as 6m @ 58 g/t Au adds a bit to deposit value, but mostly lifts expectations for further exploration success and substantial value uplift.
DK sold the 6m @ 58 g/t as a confirmed discovery of new Au-rich feeder zone ore lode in the Gap, with at least two more similar potential new Au-rich feeder zone lodes identified. He set expectations very high for substantial new Au rich tonnes in a new style of FW stockwork hitherto un-noticed by previous explorers. First hole hits 6m @ 58 g/t and he looks like a geological genius and happy for the media interviewers to run with it and fawn over his great success... unsurprisingly the shares took off as the market thought a well-endowed but possibly sub-economic project just discovered new lodes to get the project up into economic levels. no other way to read his release or watch his media round interviews imo.
With expectations set so high, what if
- grades in LTRD001 and other RC holes came back poor
- market realises no robust mineralisation has actually been drilled in the FW zone below known FW lodes yet
- market realises why the FW feeder zone may not be mineralised, or indeed actually exist at all
- market realises the Au-rich shoots probably just reflect late remobilised mineralisation, possibly well after VMS system had ended (imo)
- market realises DK was actually just twinning hole LRC187 with 9m @ 96g/t Au (wet but indicative) while calling it a 'new geological model'
- two of the holes following up assays to the 6m @ 58g/t Au RC002 had basically no Au in the geological models predicted location
- market gets wary of the laboured effort to double down on the Feeder Zone discovery in release of poor, contradictory assay results
I suggest when expectations were set way to high for a confirmed discovery and rushed assays from second discovery hole, with very selective data releases and illustrations telling only one side of the story, the market was always going to react savagely when delivered gravel instead of promised diamonds... At best it was 'only' a binary gamble on the quantum of the rushed assays for LTRD001 and other RC holes, poised for a big jump or big fall from high 2's.
Not just is the market now awash with a huge amount of wrong-footed investors, those investors are now questioning DK's judgement and communication style I'd guess. Nobody likes to be over-promised and under-delivered and made to look like suckers, especially when it means large losses. The TA guys are all over the gaps and supports as lots of those long and wrong look to stop out. Longer term it depends on whether this little LRC187, LTRC002 'jewellery box' morphs into new feeder zone discoveries, or DK's "Confirmation" release will prove as premature GW Bush's infamous Mission Accomplished speech?
(20min delay)
