I posted some metrics to comp such as MRE to Reserve conversion, ZnEq, mine and production rates, ann opex but there is obviously a lot of detail in a 140 pages if you are truly interested in doing a detailed comp (OP strip is a very decent 6:1). I'm not, it just doesn't look to have critical size required to develop from scratch without a new discovery to add tonnes. RVR were going to high-grade it to some extent and truck to Thalanga which makes a lot of sense... so long as you own an operating plant to treat Liontown as a satelite mine.
I haven't seen a DFS for years across all sorts of commodities in Oz that hasn't had opex of +$100Mpa. That's simply an observation of how all the mining, processing, logistics, infra, employees and overheads etc quickly add up these days, and costs are only going one way in Oz given how captured by the unions Labor is. To have enough margin above cash costs to repay capex deb and interest (or pay for huge sustaining capex over mine life like Anax) you have to start with at least a revenue to cash cost of 1.5:1 or it won;t get up (unless it's a >20 year type mine).
That converts to say $175M revenue annually. Say on a ZnEq basis, average total recovery is 80% and payability is 90% and Zn is US$2500/t (A$3730 @ 67c FX) then A$175M requires 65,000t ZnEq ore feed annually to the plant. If Liontown can prove up a 3Mt Mine Reserve @ 12.5% ZnEq, that is 375,000 contained ZnEq LOM, or 5.75 years of feed at 65ktpa ZnEq ore. That means 520tpa ore feed at 12.5% Zn, which is a fair rate of development and extraction for a deposit spread out over 1.5km and 400m depth. The ore lodes are generally thin, with lowish tonnes per lateral and vertical meter so no free kick on that front.
Like I said, Liontown isn;t miles away from being sufficiently economic to be developed, especially ina any future commodity boom, but it also probably isn;t there yet without another decent discovery in the belt to reach critical scale. That makes SHN a exploration company, not a value-asset company, which again is probably why the MC is low.
Cheers
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- Ann: Drilling Confirms High-Grade Main Feeder at Liontown
Ann: Drilling Confirms High-Grade Main Feeder at Liontown, page-190
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