re: Ann: Drilling confirms Second High Grade ... Hi all MMS'ers
Happy new year all, trust its a good one for VMS.
Reading some material today, happened on this...Re Tin -
Tin
News
Dec 8th: Mediators urged eastern Congo rebels and the government to
compromise at the first face-to-face talks, staged in Kenya, to defuse tensions
that have threatened to escalate into a new regional war. However, neither the
DRC President, Joseph Kabila, nor General Laurent Nkunda, leader of the
rebel National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP), attended the
meeting.
Dec 5th: Tin exports from Indonesias Bangka-Belitung island are estimated
to have fallen 47% in November from a year ago, as small smelters were shut
due to sliding prices. The governor of the island said small tin smelters could
resume operations ahead of a central government decision on issuing a quota
on production.
Dec 3rd: Venezuela agreed to acquire 300t of Bolivian tin and is considering
buying more, Bolivias mining minister said.
Analysis
A shot in the arm
Tin is currently trading in a fashion that clearly demonstrates its superior shortterm
fundamentals over all other base metals, which have all suffered substantial
losses. The shot in the arm can be put down to a quick supply-side response by
the big two, China and Indonesia, and by a resurgence of serious fighting in the
Democratic Republic of the Congos tin ore (cassiterite) producing eastern North
Kivu Province. These factors have seen tin fall just 37% since mid-September,
which is a small miracle when compared with the other base metals. The price
spiked briefly to almost $12,500/t in early December on news that Chinas
Yunnan Province would begin to augment its stocks of all metals, including tin.
This was capped by more leaks that Guangxi Province and Chinas secretive
State Reserves Bureau were also on the lookout to build stocks of all metals to
help small smelter businesses cope with the downturn. In the case of Yunnan,
however, the plan would first need approval from the state government and
would probably involve a much smaller headline number than the reported $3bn.
More significantly, the proposal by the governor of Indonesias Bangka-Belitung
island to lower export quotas was a very supportive comment, despite adding
that small smelters would be allowed to restart. The governors said that he
would recommend that Indonesia lower quotas in 2009 to 60,000t-75,000t from
90,000t this year, which could lose the market up to 30,000t of tin. This would
be in additional to cuts already made in China and to other supply disruptions in
the DRC and by small-scale producers in Tasmania.
Outlook
In our opinion, tin remains the strongest metal fundamentally in the shortterm
and we expect it to show a deficit this year and next of 20,000t and
10,000t, respectively. Interestingly, for the past 15 months China has been a
net importer of tin, suggesting demand still remains steady there for now.
Negatively impacting the price is the trickle in of metal to LME stocks.
Short-term LME 3-month price: $11,000/t-$12,000/t.
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