Taking a little trip down memory lane this morning and came...

Taking a little trip down memory lane this morning and came across this post from countryboy. https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/74420366/single

One of a constant stream of inflamatory posts painting me as some share manipulator, management hater, serial aggressor etc, etc. Take this lot below for example... so much wrong it's no wonder I fire back. I've been calling projects and the share price valuation since Jan 2023 at ~11c with reasonable opinions based on substantiated analysis of the facts as they are available. Like it or not (and this poster in particular hates me for it) I've been right most of the time...

"I just can't stomach watching the damage people like Cramer and ILC do damage for fun or profit at the expense of fellow posters and investors.Trolls and market manipulators like Cramer and Is Always Negative are exposed for all to see. The resident ILC, we cannot Cater to is here having some fun because price fell; fun at least in his own mind. Subtle drops like "the market values YIN at $50M and nothing else has any value" - not what 2iC thinks ROFL"

Take my opinion that the market was perhaps valuing Yin+ REE at $50M and the rest other DRE projects. Obviously that's just my opinion, but having followed the REE space for some time GCk RE seems to be a binary value... all or nothing in the end. Those deposits developed will have a value dependent on capex, dilution, NdPr pricing, opex etc discounted out from FID if it happens. If they are never developed, then they are worth very little. The way I think about projects is in terms of probabilities, so the market will apply some 'option value' over Yin+, which takes into account the range of values should it be developed and the probability that it get's developed... and imho, $50M is still a decent chunk of valuation change.

The very informed Raer Earth Observer email came out a few days ago, and one part in particular struck me as prescient.


There are certainly risks imo that GCk becomes an asset 'stranded' by NdPr bi-product over-production in the chase for DyTb in other more DyTb rich and cheaper deposits, and/or by technology substitution. On the plus side, China is trying their hand at supporting HAS to keep supplying China with RE feed they can turn into cheap NdPr and maintain dominance and prevent the possibly new tech substitution due to cheap and abundant RE-Perm magnets from China.

An interesting space to watch, none less than for DRE investors I would think...

GLTAH