Looking at the production from nearby gas fields to Vali, and in particular Beckler and Bow, in my view I can see why the ATP2021 JVP want to test for potential upside in the Toolachee Formation at Vali before making the FEED decision on the Vali pipeline facilities. Take a look at the Toolachee cumulative production numbers and Toolachee peak, daily gas rates from Beckler and Bow wells in the table below. In my view, both are somewhat better (higher) than for the Patchawarra cumulative production and Patchawarra peak daily gas rate numbers (NOTE: Crowsnest is the exception). The Toolachee reservoir quality / flow potential (porosity, permeability) in my view is also better than that in the Patchawarra (yes it is shallower than the Patchawarra which makes some sense) as shown in the histogram below. If the Toolachee Formation comes in at Vali, and the JVP had sized the pipeline and associated facilities for Patchawarra production only before appraising the Toolachee, they probably would have undersized the facility, thereby eroding NPV and ROCE.
Note that the Vali-1 ST1 stabilised flow rate of 4.3 Mmcf/d is from the Patchawarra only, and higher than the peak daily production rates from the Patchawarra in the Beckler and Bow gas fields. Again, Crowsnest is the exception which had a peak daily rate of about 12 Mmscf/d.
The production curves below, generally run from early 2000's to July 2020. I am unsure how representative/accurate the field sizes on the map below are for Beckler, Bow and Crowsnest. The Vali field size is about right, because the JVP the published structure map at Patchawarra and Toolachee levels in ATP2021. Now which Patchawara production curve would be representative for Vali?
And then there is Odin, which if a commercial discovery is made in both the Toolachee and Patchawarra Formations, will require further pipeline capacity.
If anyone is interested in the data source, here's the link below.
https://peps.sa.gov.au/home
TOOLACHEE PRODUCTION CURVES
PATCHAWARRA PRODUCTION CURVES
Picked up a few more today; I've had my fill now I think.........
Kind regards OldGeo.
(20min delay)